How Trump’s Tariffs Could Impact the Crypto Market

Since stepping back into office in January, 2025, US President Trump has been rolling out tariff policies in a stop-start fashion that’s left global markets – and crypto investors – scrambling. Between rising inflation fears and economic instability, tariffs have shaken up every sector, including crypto.

And while we’re all wondering “when will the tariffs start” or checking for the latest news on tariffs, one thing’s clear: the market is still reacting to every bit of tariff news that drops. 

“The market appears to have priced in tariff tension to some extent but sentiment remains fragile,” Ben Ritchie, Managing Director at Alpha Node Global told (Summ (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) formerly Summ). “As a result, headlines related to tariffs or trade tensions can still trigger some outsized reactions, especially among short-term or weak-handed investors.”

So what does that mean for you as a crypto investor? Whether you’re holding Bitcoin or are focused on buying altcoins, understanding how Trump’s tariff policies can affect the crypto market is vital for surviving the uncertainty. Not sure where to start? We asked four analysts to weigh in on the latest news on tariffs and how they will impact the crypto world. 
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What’s the Latest on Trump’s Tariffs?

Tariffs 2025: Where do things stand now? Since February, 2025 when Trump announced the US was increasing tariffs on Chinese imports, the US and China embarked on a tit-for-tat tariff trade war that threatened to upturn global economies. 

In May, some relief came during the Geneva summit, when both countries agreed to a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. This reduced tariffs for the US and China by 115 percentage points and gave global markets some much-needed breathing room. But the calm didn’t last for long.

On June 3, 2025, Trump signed an executive order doubling tariffs on foreign steel and aluminium exports – from 25% to 50% – to focus on “restoring fairness to steel and aluminium markets,” according to The Whitehouse. The tariff hike applies to nearly all global trading partners, except for Britain. 

Just a few days later, on June 9, 2025, US and Chinese officials met again to discuss the tariffs, after their trade war truce seemed to be falling apart. After the meeting, US and Chinese officials announced that the tariff truce was back on, while restrictions on Chinese rare mineral exports would be removed. 

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How Do Tariffs Affect the Economy?

Tariffs don’t just impact the countries they target, they ripple through the entire global economy. When trading partners respond with reciprocal tariffs, it can increase prices for consumers, disrupt supply chains, and slow economic growth. 

According to a June, 2025 report released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Trump’s tariffs plan is expected to reduce deficits by $2.8 trillion over the next 10 years. But that comes at a price. The CBO also predicts that tariffs will reduce the size of the US economy and significantly impact American households and businesses. Specifically, the CBO estimates tariffs will reduce buying power and add approximately 0.4 percentage points to the annual inflation in both 2025 and 2026.

Of course, these numbers can change. Since the Trump administration can change the way in which tariffs are implemented, it’s difficult to predict the impact with complete certainty. 

How Will Tariffs Affect Crypto?

Even though tariffs target traditional goods and products, they can still impact the crypto market. As crypto becomes more deeply ingrained in the global economy, any policy that has the opportunity to drive inflation – such as tariffs – can indirectly impact buying behavior and asset prices. So, what does that impact actually look like for crypto? In the sections below, we’ll break down the short-term and long-term impacts. 

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Short Term

Increased Bitcoin volatility 

Since Bitcoin is often treated as a speculative asset, it tends to move in line with economic trends, including those of the stock market. This makes it susceptible to sudden shifts in investor sentiment.  

When Trump announced a national emergency on April 2, 2025, introducing sweeping tariffs on almost every country, the stock market dropped by double digits – and crypto followed. Bitcoin  plunged to around $76,000, showing the immediate reaction to economic uncertainty. 

But things quickly shifted. By May, 2025, news of a temporary pause on tariffs between the US and China revived investor confidence. As risk appetite returned, Bitcoin and Ethereum bounced back up, showing how closely crypto prices are tied to changes in macroeconomic sentiment. 

“This highlights Bitcoin's dual nature – despite gaining traction as a potential hedge against inflation and currency instability, it still behaves largely as a risk asset during short-term sentiment shifts,” Kylie Purcell, Investments Analyst at Finder.com told Summ. “Looking forward, how crypto performs could heavily depend on upcoming interest rate decisions influenced by ongoing trade negotiations.” 

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Long Term 

Increase bond yields and reduce faith in the dollar, pushing investors to Bitcoin

Over time, tariffs can increase fiscal pressure and reduce global confidence in the US economy – particularly if they escalate into full-blown trade wars. 

“If bond yields rise and faith in the dollar weakens, Bitcoin may see more capital inflows as an alternative store of value,” Wesley Barton (CBP), Director of The Network Firm, a leading crypto accounting firm told Summ. “This is especially the case from non-US investors seeking exposure outside of dollar-denominated assets.”

Barton also noted that recent trade developments and Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates due to the bond yield significantly rising reflect growing market uncertainty. “Expect turbulence in both directions until most of these are official and have a reasonable timeframe established,” he said. 

Josh Gilbert, Market Analyst at eToro, echoed this outlook, sharing how tariffs could push bond yields higher and cause foreign buyers to step back from U.S treasuries.

“Such a scenario can chip away at faith in the dollar’s long-term value, especially as ballooning deficits raise questions about U.S. financial stability,” he said. 

“For Bitcoin, this is potentially bullish: a weakening dollar and rising fiat risks highlight Bitcoin’s appeal as a borderless alternative store of value. As retirement funds and sovereign wealth funds gain exposure through ETFs, this shift away from fiat-linked assets could accelerate, pushing more capital into crypto.” 

Despite rising bond yields traditionally being an opposing force for risk assets, Bitcoin seems to be paving a new path. 

“Trump’s aggressive fiscal policies have driven US bond yields to new highs, especially with the 30-year Treasury yield topping 5%,” said Purcell. “This typically puts pressure on risk assets as borrowing costs rise, but Bitcoin has shown resilience by rallying instead. This unusual dynamic hints that Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a viable alternative asset when traditional markets, especially bonds and currencies, become unstable.” 

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Inflation Could Push Bitcoin Towards Safe-Haven Status

If tariffs cause inflation, Bitcoin could benefit as a protection against rising prices and the perceived devaluation of fiat currency. Barton explains that tariffs, especially on consumer goods, can be inflationary. “This is relatively certain if supply chains are disrupted and domestic producers don't ramp up fast enough,” he said. 

Ritchie shared a similar view, adding that institutional interest in Bitcoin could increase in response to inflation. “While higher tariffs may slow GDP growth, Bitcoin offers a distinct store-of-value alternative outside the traditional system,” he said. “Especially as more governments and corporations consider digital assets as part of their treasury diversification strategies.” 

Gilbert cautioned that while tariffs could contribute to inflation, the correlation with Bitcoin rallies isn’t always immediate. “Trump’s tariffs do risk stoking inflation by raising import costs, but that doesn’t directly translate into bitcoin rallying as a result,” he said. 

Instead, broader economic response – like interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve – will likely influence investor behavior. Markets are currently anticipating a possible rate cut in September, but that depends on whether inflation keeps cooling in the next few months. 

Even so, signs of Bitcoin’s evolving role in the financial world are becoming clearer. “Gold is the traditional go-to, but Bitcoin is increasingly part of that conversation,” said Purcell. “Institutions are now placing bigger bets on Bitcoin as a hedge against currency devaluation, helping BTC surge past the $110,000 milestone.” As inflation grows, so is Bitcoin’s reputation as digital gold. 

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Stablecoins May Gain Appeal 

As tariffs wars continue and impacted countries feel the strain, stablecoins will be seen as an attractive tool for global transactions. Stablecoins are an appealing alternative to traditional banking systems – especially when currency depreciation is a high risk.

“Trade instability often creates friction in cross-border transactions, and stablecoins can offer a more efficient and censorship-resistant medium for international commerce,” said Barton. “You will see this a lot in emerging markets or for companies seeking dollar exposure without using traditional banking rails.” 

Businesses feeling the effects of tariffs may already be turning to stablecoins to avoid currency volatility. “Companies facing tariff uncertainty and volatile FX rates are already leaning on dollar-pegged stablecoins to sidestep slow traditional banking rails,” said Gilbert. “Any geopolitical uncertainty, like tariffs, has continued to put stablecoins on a pedestal.” 

The real-world value of stablecoins is more visible in countries facing economic hardship. In places like Argentina – where local currencies experience daily instability  – stablecoins are a financial lifeline for everyday transactions. “The instability triggered by Trump's ongoing trade disputes has significantly boosted stablecoin usage globally,” said Purcell. “While clearer regulations have undoubtedly helped adoption, the real-world use case is most evident in economies experiencing extreme currency volatility.” 

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Increase Mining Costs 

One of the biggest downsides to the tariffs could hit US-based Bitcoin miners. Much of the specialized mining equipment is made in China, so tariffs on Chinese imports could mean a big hike in costs for miners to purchase or upgrade their equipment. 

As competition heats up in the mining space, these added costs are set to reduce miners’ profitability – also known as hashprice – to an all-time low. 

Tariffs 2025: What’s Next for Crypto Markets 

The relationship between tariffs and crypto is becoming harder to ignore. As Bitcoin builds its reputation as a safeguard against economic uncertainty, it could benefit if the trade wars continue to rattle markets. But let’s keep one thing in mind – not all crypto will respond to tariffs in the same way. 

So, what's next for crypto markets in 2025? It’s yet to be seen. How things unfold depends on successful tariff negotiations and whether new policies will create more clarity or uncertainty for investors. 

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Trump’s tariffs on China causes shifts in the market

The temporary pause in Trump’s tariffs against China has helped ease investor anxiety, encouraging markets back to risk assets like Bitcoin. 

“Easing trade tensions often aligns with a return to risk-on sentiment,” said Barton. “A pause could encourage greater institutional rotation into digital assets, particularly if interest rate volatility subsides and macro conditions stabilize.”

But Barton warned that delays aren’t the same as solutions. “We need more clarity on rulings from the crypto task force and actual trade agreements rather than pausing or delaying,” he said. “This delay method in my opinion will decrease uncertainty in the short term and affect the market negatively in the long term.” 

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Institutional demand builds even as uncertainty lingers 

Despite the lack of permanent solutions and continued tariff wars, investor interest in crypto – particularly Bitcoin – continues to rise.

“Markets are effectively looking past the trade war noise,” said Gilbert. “The prevailing view is that the worst of the tariff turmoil may now be behind us. Trump’s willingness to negotiate has brought temporary truces…That’s provided a real tailwind for crypto, especially Bitcoin, which is rallying with what feels like a freight train behind it.”

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How should I approach crypto investing moving forward?

So, how should you deal with the ongoing effects of tariffs on crypto? It’s best to approach crypto investing with cautious optimism, recognizing both the opportunities and risks. Here’s what you can do:

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• Stay in the loop: Keep yourself informed on the latest tariff news and Federal Reserve updates, as this can influence the price of crypto.
• Maintain a diversified portfolio: Don’t put all your funds into one crypto asset. Invest in a range of stablecoins and quality altcoins to reduce any potential risk. 
• Don’t panic: Think long-term, not short-term to avoid getting caught up in panic and fear from constantly changing tariff news. 

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And when tax time comes around, don’t forget to use tools like Summ to make sense of your transaction history and stay compliant – no matter how confusing the market gets. 

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• Trump’s tariffs would cut US deficits by $2.8T over 10 years and shrink the economy, CBO says, AP News, 2025,
• Re: Budgetary and Economic Effects of Increases in Tariffs Implemented Between January 6 and May 13, 2025, CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE, 2025,
• Trump administration officials seek to repair frayed trade truce with China, Washington Post, 2025,
• Trump’s 50% tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum come into effect, The Guardian, 2025,
• Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Increases Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum, The White House, 2025,
• A Timeline of the Trade War So Far Between the U.S. and China During Trump’s Second Term, Time, 2025,
• China-US 90-day tariff truce should be extended, Global Times says, Time, 2025,
• A timeline of Trump’s tariff actions so far, PBS News, 2025,
• What to know about tariffs: Key deadlines and rules, Axios, 2025,
• U.S. Bitcoin Mining Was on the Rise. Then Came Trump’s Tariffs, Unchained Crypto, 2025,
• US, China reach deal to ease export curbs, keep tariff truce alive, Reuters, 2025,

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